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Data Science Academy · Lesson

A First Forecast Baseline

Naive and moving-average forecasts.

Always Start Simple

Before fancy models, you need a baseline: a dead-simple forecast that anything fancier must beat to earn its place. 🪜

The Naive Forecast

The simplest baseline is the naive forecast: predict that tomorrow equals today. Surprisingly hard to beat for steady data.

forecast = sales.iloc[-1]

All lessons in this course

  1. Trend, Seasonality, and Noise
  2. Rolling Windows and Lags
  3. Stationarity and Differencing
  4. A First Forecast Baseline
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