Inputs and Variables
Spend, seasonality, base.
Anatomy of MMM Inputs
An MMM is only as good as its inputs. They fall into three buckets: media variables (the levers you control), control variables (drivers you don't), and the dependent variable (what you predict).
Getting these right, at the correct granularity and cadence, is most of the work in a credible model.
dependent : sales or revenue (weekly)
media : spend or impressions per channel
controls : price, promo, seasonality, macro
transforms: adstock, saturationThe Dependent Variable
Choose a clean outcome: units sold, revenue, or new customers. Be consistent about whether it's gross or net, and whether returns are excluded.
Model at the granularity you can act on, usually national or regional weekly. Daily data adds noise; monthly hides dynamics.
All lessons in this course
- MMM vs Attribution
- Inputs and Variables
- Reading an MMM
- Budget Reallocation